2026-03-26 Market Analysis Report

Event 1: Iran-US Military & Diplomatic Confrontation Escalates, Strait of Hormuz at Center

• Overview: Iranian forces have launched missiles toward a US aircraft carrier [Intel 6, 11] and officially rejected a US-proposed ceasefire plan as "unrealistic and excessive" [Intel 10]. This occurs alongside reported backchannel ceasefire talks [Intel 5]. Iran has issued a conditional statement that it will permit vessels from "non-hostile" countries to pass through the Strait of Hormuz [Intel 17], a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments.
• Direct Impact: Energy & Logistics sectors are directly in the line of fire. Korean refiners (e.g., SK Innovation, GS Caltex), chemical companies, and power generators face imminent input cost shocks. Shipping and logistics firms (e.g., HMM) confront route uncertainty, war risk premiums, and potential delays. The domestic waste management sector in Paju is already proactively managing supply chains for disposable bags, indicating secondary supply chain anxiety [Intel 8].
• Transmission Chain: Event → Energy Price Spike & Shipping Disruption → Korean Trade Deficit Worsening → Corporate Earnings & Inflation → Monetary Policy. A sustained blockage or threat premium at Hormuz would cause Brent Crude and LNG prices to surge. Korea, nearly 100% dependent on imported energy, would see its import bill balloon, pressuring the KRW and exacerbating inflation. The Bank of Korea would be constrained in any growth-supportive policy. Industrials and consumer discretionary sectors would face a margin squeeze.
• Quantitative Reference: Watch Brent Crude (BZ=F), Korea's Net Oil Import Bill (Monthly MOEF data), KRW/USD exchange rate, and the KOSPI Energy (^KSEN) vs. KOSPI Consumer Staples (^KSST) relative performance. Direction: Up for oil and energy indexes, down for KRW and broad consumer-facing sectors.
• Action Items:
  • Increase hedging exposure to energy commodities. Overweight integra